LSU
TIGERSLSU
15-14 | Road
74
AUBURN
TIGERSAUB
15-14 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
TIGERS
100%
TIGERS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)
LSU By 1-7 points
27.4%
LSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AUB By 1-7 points
20.1%
AUB By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
LSU
81
LSU
Auburn
77
AUBURN
Simulated Score
LSU
73
LSU
Auburn
85
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
LSU @ AUB
74 - 88
Jan 29, 2025
AUB @ LSU
87 - 74
Jan 13, 2024
LSU @ AUB
78 - 93
Jan 18, 2023
AUB @ LSU
67 - 49
Dec 29, 2021
LSU @ AUB
55 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+36.2% more
LSU: 15.8
vs
Auburn: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.9%
LSU: 81.9%
vs
Auburn: 76.0%
Steals (L5)
+31.7% more
Auburn: 6.2
vs
LSU: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+22.0% more
Auburn: 11.7
vs
LSU: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LSU Score
81.0
74
AUB Score
77.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 36.4
42.0 / 47.0
Assists
10.1 / 15.8
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.1
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 42.0
54.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 81.9
73.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 36.0
27.0 / 27.0
Steals
6.2 / 4.7
13.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.6
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LSU
--
AUB
Advantage
22-16-0
(57.9%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LSU
--
AUB
Advantage
15-23-0
(39.5%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LSU
--
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
LSU
AUB
LSU
ML
58%
22-16
62%
20-12
75%
24-8
62%
20-12
ATS
74%
28-10
66%
21-11
75%
24-8
62%
20-12
TTL
53%
20-18
72%
23-9
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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