Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Ragin' Cajuns GAST @ UL

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

10-21  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 6:00 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

10-21  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
0%
PANTHERS --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Louisiana)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

27.4%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

GAST By 1-7 points

16.9%

GAST By 8-14 points

6.8%

UL By 1-7 points

26.8%

UL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
GEORGIA STATE
81
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
70
GEORGIA STATE
78
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ragin' Cajuns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ragin' Cajuns (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o134.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GAST @ UL 75 - 84
Jan 29, 2026 GAST @ UL 72 - 82
Jan 4, 2025 UL @ GAST 70 - 94
Feb 7, 2024 GAST @ UL 78 - 69
Jan 7, 2023 GAST @ UL 70 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +16.5% more
Louisiana: 4.0 vs Georgia State: 3.5
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Louisiana: 9.3 vs Georgia State: 8.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Louisiana: 35.5% vs Georgia State: 26.3%
Steals (L5) +11.3% more
Georgia State: 7.9 vs Louisiana: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 75.0 75
UL Score 81.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 26.3 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 9.1 / 9.8 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.5 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 38.6 / 38.4 43.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 77.0 74.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 33.8 40.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.9 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 8.0 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
UL Advantage
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
UL Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
GAST
UL
GAST
ML
66% 21-11
56% 18-14
63% 19-11
71% 22-9
ATS
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
63% 19-11
71% 22-9
TTL
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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