OREGON
DUCKSORE
11-18 | Road
54
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
22-7 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
DUCKS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
ORE By 1-7 points
13.7%
ORE By 8-14 points
4.8%
ILL By 1-7 points
25.3%
ILL By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon
75
OREGON
Illinois
83
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Oregon
72
OREGON
Illinois
75
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
ORE @ ILL
54 - 80
Jan 2, 2025
ILL @ ORE
109 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+12.3% more
Illinois: 4.3
vs
Oregon: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+10.9% more
Illinois: 37.3
vs
Oregon: 33.6
Steals (L5)
+37.1% more
Oregon: 6.8
vs
Illinois: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+31.9% more
Oregon: 12.7
vs
Illinois: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORE Score
75.0
54
ILL Score
83.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 34.7
28.0 / 17.0
Assists
14.4 / 15.8
13.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.3 / 3.8
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 43.8
41.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 79.1
86.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 33.6
48.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.3 / 6.8
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 12.7
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
ORE
ILL
ORE
ML
65%
24-13
56%
18-14
57%
20-15
62%
18-11
ATS
70%
26-11
56%
18-14
57%
20-15
62%
18-11
TTL
57%
21-16
59%
19-13
100%
35-0
100%
29-0
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