ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
22-7 | Road
88
GEORGIA
BULLDOGSUGA
20-9 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
ALA By 1-7 points
27.2%
ALA By 8-14 points
20.1%
UGA By 1-7 points
21.6%
UGA By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama
82
ALABAMA
Georgia
79
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
Alabama
78
ALABAMA
Georgia
85
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Crimson Tide
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Crimson Tide (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u180.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u180.5
Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
ALA @ UGA
88 - 98
Feb 1, 2025
UGA @ ALA
69 - 90
Jan 31, 2024
ALA @ UGA
85 - 76
Feb 18, 2023
UGA @ ALA
59 - 108
Jan 25, 2022
ALA @ UGA
76 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+31.2% more
Alabama: 10.6
vs
Georgia: 7.3
Rebounding (L5)
+24.1% more
Alabama: 38.7
vs
Georgia: 29.4
Blocks (L5)
+73.1% more
Georgia: 5.3
vs
Alabama: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+22.5% more
Georgia: 5.9
vs
Alabama: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALA Score
82.0
88
UGA Score
79.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.3 / 38.3
45.0 / 38.0
Assists
16.4 / 14.9
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.1
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.0 / 46.6
53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
79.2 / 80.7
88.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
29.4 / 38.7
40.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.8
7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
7.3 / 10.6
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
Advantage
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
UGA
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 9.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
UGA
Advantage
15-17-1
(46.9%)
Margin: 9.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
ALA
UGA
ALA
ML
67%
22-11
63%
22-13
56%
18-14
58%
19-14
ATS
61%
20-13
60%
21-14
56%
18-14
58%
19-14
TTL
64%
21-12
63%
22-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…