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UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

31-25-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

31-24-7  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Karel Vejmelka None-None 2.01 0.920 --
Logan Thompson None-None 3.12 0.870 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.01 Ldr GAA 3.12
0.920 Ldr Save % 0.870
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
MAMMOTH --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
MammothUTA (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mammoth Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

UTA By 1 goal

12.1%

UTA By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
UTAH
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
UTAH
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 WSH @ UTA 7 - 4
Mar 3, 2026 UTA @ WSH 3 - 2
Feb 9, 2025 UTA @ WSH 5 - 4
Nov 18, 2024 WSH @ UTA 6 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +35.2% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Utah: 12.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +29.1% more
Washington: 29.0 vs Utah: 22.4
Hits (L5) +20.7% more
Washington: 21.5 vs Utah: 17.8
Takeaways (L5) +11.2% more
Washington: 4.1 vs Utah: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 2.0 3
WSH Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
18%MONEY82%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
UTA
WSH
UTA
ML
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
ATS
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
TTL
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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