BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
40-20 | Road
108
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
26-33 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
BUCKS
100%
CELTICS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-7 points
23.0%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIL By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
122
BOSTON
Milwaukee
112
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Boston
112
BOSTON
Milwaukee
115
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o216.0
Loss
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim
u216.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
BOS @ MIL
133 - 101
Mar 2, 2026
BOS @ MIL
108 - 81
Feb 1, 2026
MIL @ BOS
79 - 107
Dec 11, 2025
BOS @ MIL
101 - 116
Dec 6, 2024
MIL @ BOS
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.0% more
Boston: 6.9
vs
Milwaukee: 3.3
Rebounding (L5)
+20.0% more
Boston: 51.4
vs
Milwaukee: 41.1
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
Boston: 28.1
vs
Milwaukee: 25.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Boston: 82.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
122.0
108
MIL Score
112.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 39.6
36.0 / 40.0
Assists
25.2 / 28.1
18.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.3 / 6.9
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 48.1
36.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 82.7
74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
41.1 / 51.4
41.0 / 54.0
Steals
7.4 / 5.6
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 13.5
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
BOS
MIL
BOS
ML
64%
61-35
57%
61-46
60%
49-32
53%
47-41
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
61-43-3
60%
49-32
53%
47-41
TTL
55%
53-43
56%
60-47
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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