HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
37-22 | Road
123
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
16-43 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
WIZARDS
0%
ROCKETS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
HOU By 1-7 points
15.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
5.8%
WSH By 1-7 points
26.2%
WSH By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
116
HOUSTON
Washington
123
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Houston
108
HOUSTON
Washington
115
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wizards
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wizards
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wizards (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Wizards (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o225.5
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
HOU @ WSH
123 - 118
Nov 12, 2025
WSH @ HOU
112 - 135
Jan 7, 2025
HOU @ WSH
135 - 112
Nov 11, 2024
WSH @ HOU
92 - 107
Mar 19, 2024
HOU @ WSH
137 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+11.7% more
Houston: 26.1
vs
Washington: 23.0
Rebounding (L5)
+11.6% more
Houston: 45.0
vs
Washington: 39.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Houston: 49.0%
vs
Washington: 47.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
116.0
123
WSH Score
123.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 34.9
54.0 / 36.0
Assists
23.0 / 26.1
20.0 / 21.0
Blocks
6.3 / 6.0
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 49.0
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 77.5
79.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 45.0
27.0 / 59.0
Steals
6.9 / 7.1
15.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 14.5
13.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
HOU
WSH
HOU
ML
70%
112-49
61%
69-44
47%
39-44
59%
51-35
ATS
69%
111-49-1
62%
70-43
47%
39-44
59%
51-35
TTL
74%
119-41-1
51%
58-55
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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