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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

27-21-11  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Mar 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-24-9  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dan Vladar None-None 1.85 0.935 --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 1.85 0.920 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.85 GAA 1.85
0.935 Ldr Save % 0.920
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
FLYERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TOR By 1 goal

19.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 PHI @ TOR 3 - 2
Jan 8, 2026 TOR @ PHI 2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 TOR @ PHI 5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025 PHI @ TOR 2 - 7
Jan 7, 2025 TOR @ PHI 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +50.9% more
Toronto: 5.1 vs Philadelphia: 3.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +30.9% more
Toronto: 28.4 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Power Play % (L5) +18.8%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Philadelphia: 20.4%
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.8% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Philadelphia: 14.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.0 3
TOR Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
34%MONEY66%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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