Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Lakers SAC @ LAL

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

14-47  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 9:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

35-24  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
KINGS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Los Angeles)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

5.5%

Lakers Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

SAC By 1-7 points

4.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.8%

LAL By 1-7 points

13.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
103
SACRAMENTO
119
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
115
SACRAMENTO
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (-12) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 SAC @ LAL 104 - 128
Jan 12, 2026 LAL @ SAC 112 - 124
Dec 28, 2025 SAC @ LAL 101 - 125
Oct 26, 2025 LAL @ SAC 127 - 120
Dec 28, 2024 SAC @ LAL 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.3%
Los Angeles: 39.7% vs Sacramento: 28.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Los Angeles: 50.3% vs Sacramento: 45.7%
Steals (L5) +29.3% more
Sacramento: 10.3 vs Los Angeles: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Sacramento: 80.4% vs Los Angeles: 75.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 103.0 104
LAL Score 119.0 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 28.4 46.0 / 23.0
Assists 25.2 / 26.8 34.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.2 9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 45.7 50.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 80.4 73.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 44.0 37.0 / 52.0
Steals 7.3 / 10.3 14.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.9 10.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
SAC
LAL
SAC
ML
61% 68-43
55% 55-45
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
ATS
61% 67-43-1
54% 52-45-3
54% 49-42
61% 50-32
TTL
61% 66-43-2
58% 57-42-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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