MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
37-23 | Road
117
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
37-23 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
256.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIN By 8-14 points
18.6%
DEN By 1-7 points
23.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
129
MINNESOTA
Denver
127
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Denver
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+3)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o241.0
Loss
Proj Total: 256.0
D
Sim
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.0% more
Minnesota: 6.6
vs
Denver: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+9.8% more
Minnesota: 9.6
vs
Denver: 8.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Minnesota: 48.0%
vs
Denver: 45.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+18.8% more
Denver: 50.3
vs
Minnesota: 42.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
129.0
117
DEN Score
127.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 36.7
27.0 / 39.0
Assists
28.6 / 24.7
21.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.2 / 6.6
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.0
48.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 72.5
74.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
50.3 / 42.4
44.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.6
2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 15.8
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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