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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

20-10  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Carver Arena
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

19-11  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
RACERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Bradley)
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

42.1%

Braves Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BRAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

MUR By 1-7 points

23.0%

MUR By 8-14 points

12.2%

BRAD By 1-7 points

26.8%

BRAD By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
MURRAY STATE
83
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
70
MURRAY STATE
78
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MUR @ BRAD 78 - 87
Jan 4, 2026 BRAD @ MUR 66 - 86
Mar 7, 2025 MUR @ BRAD 62 - 70
Feb 22, 2025 MUR @ BRAD 83 - 85
Jan 18, 2025 BRAD @ MUR 74 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.9% more
Bradley: 14.9 vs Murray State: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Bradley: 34.6% vs Murray State: 32.7%
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Murray State: 11.3 vs Bradley: 10.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Murray State: 74.5% vs Bradley: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 81.0 78
BRAD Score 83.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 32.7 33.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.9 / 12.1 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.5 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 42.8 54.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 74.5 72.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 33.3 37.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.3 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 11.3 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
MUR
BRAD
MUR
ML
65% 22-12
58% 19-14
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
ATS
59% 20-14
52% 17-16
68% 23-11
61% 20-13
TTL
68% 23-11
70% 23-10
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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