Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bruins @ Redbirds BEL @ ILST

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

26-4  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 5:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

19-11  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
BRUINS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BELMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Belmont)
BruinsBEL (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

61.8%

Redbirds Cover

38.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BEL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BEL)

BEL By 1-7 points

27.2%

BEL By 8-14 points

20.1%

ILST By 1-7 points

21.6%

ILST By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
72
BELMONT
69
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
71
BELMONT
76
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bruins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bruins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 BEL @ ILST 74 - 81
Jan 24, 2026 ILST @ BEL 69 - 80
Mar 7, 2025 ILST @ BEL 63 - 76
Jan 29, 2025 BEL @ ILST 78 - 81
Dec 4, 2024 ILST @ BEL 97 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.1% more
Belmont: 3.0 vs Illinois State: 1.4
Assists (L5) +42.9% more
Belmont: 20.0 vs Illinois State: 11.4
Steals (L5) +33.6% more
Belmont: 6.8 vs Illinois State: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.4%
Belmont: 44.0% vs Illinois State: 36.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BEL Score 72.0 74
ILST Score 69.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 44.0 44.0 / 42.0
Assists 11.4 / 20.0 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 53.5 47.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 79.1 83.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 33.8 31.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.5 / 6.8 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 10.7 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
BEL
ILST
BEL
ML
42% 15-21
47% 15-17
71% 24-10
62% 20-12
ATS
58% 21-15
56% 18-14
71% 24-10
62% 20-12
TTL
58% 21-15
44% 14-18
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins: Unbeaten Bruins Invade Autzen as C…
si 2 days, 6 hours ago
UCLA's Unlikely Heroes: TaShawn James, Jalen Woods, and Semaj Mo…
si 5 days, 11 hours ago
Isaiah Marshall's Rocky Start: Kansas QB Shows Flashes but Seeks…
si 1 week, 1 day ago
How the Bruins Stunned the Rangers with a Late Third-Period Outb…
headtopics 1 week, 1 day ago
Kansas Jayhawks Lose RB Yasin Willis Indefinitely, Backfield Dep…
si 1 week, 2 days ago