CHARLESTON
COUGARSCOFC
20-10 | Road
79
UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
25-4 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
SEAHAWKS
0%
COUGARS
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)
COFC By 1-7 points
6.8%
COFC By 8-14 points
1.7%
UNCW By 1-7 points
18.6%
UNCW By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Charleston
68
CHARLESTON
UNC Wilmington
81
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
Charleston
71
CHARLESTON
UNC Wilmington
76
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
COFC @ UNCW
79 - 76
Feb 9, 2026
UNCW @ COFC
76 - 64
Mar 10, 2025
COFC @ UNCW
67 - 68
Feb 13, 2025
COFC @ UNCW
66 - 86
Jan 23, 2025
UNCW @ COFC
85 - 83
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
UNC Wilmington: 38.8%
vs
Charleston: 36.3%
Blocks (L5)
+43.3% more
Charleston: 4.5
vs
UNC Wilmington: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+27.2% more
Charleston: 9.5
vs
UNC Wilmington: 6.9
Steals (L5)
+25.9% more
Charleston: 6.9
vs
UNC Wilmington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COFC Score
68.0
79
UNCW Score
81.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 36.3
41.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.7 / 17.8
14.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.5
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 47.1
42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
67.3 / 72.7
69.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 37.3
47.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.9
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
6.9 / 9.5
15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COFC
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COFC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
UNCW
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
COFC
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.8
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
COFC
UNCW
COFC
ML
64%
21-12
66%
19-10
52%
17-16
62%
18-11
ATS
58%
19-14
59%
17-12
52%
17-16
62%
18-11
TTL
61%
20-13
68%
19-9-1
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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