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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

23-5  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 3:45 PM ET
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

17-11  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
HOOSIERS
100%
SPARTANS --
HOOSIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 HoosiersIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

38.2%

Hoosiers Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

MSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

MSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

IU By 1-7 points

21.6%

IU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MICHIGAN STATE
61
INDIANA
Simulated Score
67
MICHIGAN STATE
73
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hoosiers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hoosiers (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Hoosiers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MSU @ IU 77 - 64
Jan 13, 2026 IU @ MSU 60 - 81
Feb 11, 2025 IU @ MSU 71 - 67
Mar 10, 2024 MSU @ IU 64 - 65
Feb 21, 2023 IU @ MSU 65 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +55.4% more
Michigan State: 4.4 vs Indiana: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +31.9% more
Michigan State: 35.4 vs Indiana: 24.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 64.0 77
IU Score 61.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 33.6 29.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.8 / 17.1 8.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 46.9 39.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 79.6 77.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 24.1 / 35.4 27.0 / 35.0
Steals 2.0 / 4.4 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 9.2 7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
IU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
MSU
IU
MSU
ML
66% 21-11
71% 25-10
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
ATS
53% 17-15
71% 25-10
71% 22-9
61% 20-13
TTL
56% 18-14
49% 17-18
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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