UIC
FLAMESUIC
17-13 | Road
63
INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
10-20 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
0%
SYCAMORES
100%
FLAMES
--
SYCAMORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UIC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UIC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIC)
UIC By 1-7 points
26.2%
UIC By 8-14 points
25.3%
INST By 1-7 points
15.3%
INST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UIC
77
UIC
Indiana State
70
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
UIC
70
UIC
Indiana State
78
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Flames
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sycamores
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Flames (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Sycamores (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
UIC @ INST
63 - 79
Jan 27, 2026
INST @ UIC
74 - 76
Feb 1, 2025
INST @ UIC
88 - 83
Feb 24, 2024
UIC @ INST
73 - 88
Jan 24, 2024
INST @ UIC
89 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.6% more
UIC: 8.2
vs
Indiana State: 5.8
Assists (L5)
+13.0% more
UIC: 17.1
vs
Indiana State: 14.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
UIC: 38.7%
vs
Indiana State: 29.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.2%
UIC: 49.4%
vs
Indiana State: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UIC Score
77.0
63
INST Score
70.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 38.7
48.0 / 13.0
Assists
14.9 / 17.1
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.7
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 49.4
55.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
63.0 / 68.6
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 37.8
28.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.8 / 8.2
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 12.1
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIC
--
INST
Advantage
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIC
--
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UIC
--
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
UIC
INST
UIC
ML
66%
21-11
57%
20-15
53%
17-15
44%
15-19
ATS
62%
20-12
54%
19-16
53%
17-15
44%
15-19
TTL
53%
17-15
60%
21-14
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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