Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Pirates MEM @ ECU

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

12-16  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Mar 1 • 2:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

10-18  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
TIGERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (East Carolina)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

27.4%

Pirates Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

MEM By 1-7 points

16.9%

MEM By 8-14 points

6.8%

ECU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ECU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MEMPHIS
73
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
MEMPHIS
78
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MEM @ ECU 68 - 84
Jan 11, 2025 ECU @ MEM 70 - 74
Feb 29, 2024 MEM @ ECU 82 - 58
Jan 7, 2023 ECU @ MEM 59 - 69
Jan 27, 2022 ECU @ MEM 54 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
East Carolina: 11.6 vs Memphis: 9.7
Steals (L5) +18.3% more
East Carolina: 7.6 vs Memphis: 6.4
Rebounding (L5) +8.2% more
East Carolina: 35.5 vs Memphis: 32.8
Blocks (L5) +24.9% more
Memphis: 4.4 vs East Carolina: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 67.0 68
ECU Score 73.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 31.0 50.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.6 / 9.7 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.4 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 45.0 54.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 74.2 75.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 32.8 38.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.4 6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.5 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
MEM
ECU
MEM
ML
55% 17-14
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
ATS
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
55% 17-14
68% 21-10
TTL
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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