Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Highlanders @ Lancers RAD @ LONG

RADFORD

HIGHLANDERSRAD

16-14  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Joan Perry Brock Center
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

15-15  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
📊
LANCERS
100%
HIGHLANDERS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
RADFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Radford)
HighlandersRAD (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Highlanders Cover

78.8%

Lancers Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RAD -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RAD)

RAD By 1-7 points

25.3%

RAD By 8-14 points

26.2%

LONG By 1-7 points

13.7%

LONG By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
81
RADFORD
73
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
69
RADFORD
74
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Highlanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Highlanders (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.0 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u156.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 RAD @ LONG 74 - 90
Jan 17, 2026 LONG @ RAD 83 - 85
Feb 8, 2025 RAD @ LONG 71 - 69
Jan 22, 2025 LONG @ RAD 77 - 74
Feb 24, 2024 LONG @ RAD 82 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +63.8% more
Radford: 4.8 vs Longwood: 1.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Radford: 40.7% vs Longwood: 37.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.7%
Radford: 71.9% vs Longwood: 70.1%
Steals (L5) +37.3% more
Longwood: 9.2 vs Radford: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RAD Score 81.0 74
LONG Score 73.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 40.7 45.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.4 / 11.7 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.7 / 4.8 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 43.1 45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 71.9 86.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 36.7 43.0 / 28.0
Steals 9.2 / 6.7 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 12.8 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RAD
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
LONG
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RAD Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -2.2
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
RAD
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.9
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
RAD
LONG
RAD
ML
65% 20-11
77% 23-7
68% 21-10
76% 22-7
ATS
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
77% 23-7
TTL
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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