MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
14-16 | Road
75
STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
11-19 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
SKYHAWKS
0%
LAKERS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
STONEHILL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Stonehill)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STO -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STO)
MERC By 1-7 points
3.3%
MERC By 8-14 points
0.6%
STO By 1-7 points
12.2%
STO By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
71
MERCYHURST
Stonehill
88
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
69
MERCYHURST
Stonehill
74
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Skyhawks (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
STO @ MERC
51 - 56
Feb 28, 2026
MERC @ STO
75 - 72
Jan 17, 2026
STO @ MERC
62 - 57
Feb 15, 2025
MERC @ STO
73 - 85
Jan 3, 2025
STO @ MERC
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+164.0% more
Stonehill: 5.4
vs
Mercyhurst: 2.0
Turnovers (L5)
+19.2% more
Stonehill: 9.4
vs
Mercyhurst: 7.9
Rebounding (L5)
+15.9% more
Stonehill: 35.4
vs
Mercyhurst: 30.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Stonehill: 34.1%
vs
Mercyhurst: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
71.0
75
STO Score
88.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 30.0
33.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.9 / 13.5
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.4 / 2.0
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 49.3
38.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 80.3
61.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 30.5
48.0 / 47.0
Steals
5.0 / 7.0
2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 7.9
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
STO
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
STO
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
MERC
STO
MERC
ML
45%
15-18
59%
20-14
70%
23-10
79%
26-7
ATS
39%
13-20
62%
21-13
70%
23-10
79%
26-7
TTL
55%
18-15
53%
18-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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