Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Governors @ Knights APSU @ BELL

AUSTIN PEAY

GOVERNORSAPSU

21-7  |  Road

97
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Knights Hall
View Odds Details →

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

11-18  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
GOVERNORS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
BELLARMINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Bellarmine)
GovernorsAPSU (-3.5) 0 KnightsBELL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Governors Cover

30.9%

Knights Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BELL -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BELL)

APSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

APSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

BELL By 1-7 points

27.2%

BELL By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
71
AUSTIN PEAY
76
BELLARMINE
Simulated Score
68
AUSTIN PEAY
72
BELLARMINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 APSU @ BELL 97 - 111
Feb 14, 2026 BELL @ APSU 70 - 90
Feb 18, 2025 APSU @ BELL 68 - 94
Jan 30, 2025 BELL @ APSU 77 - 86
Mar 1, 2024 BELL @ APSU 87 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
Bellarmine: 82.6% vs Austin Peay: 76.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Bellarmine: 53.3% vs Austin Peay: 50.4%
Blocks (L5) +33.0% more
Austin Peay: 1.8 vs Bellarmine: 1.2
Assists (L5) +28.6% more
Austin Peay: 17.0 vs Bellarmine: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APSU Score 71.0 97
BELL Score 76.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.9 / 40.0 45.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.2 / 17.0 22.0 / 21.0
Blocks 1.2 / 1.8 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 53.3 / 50.4 60.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 82.6 / 76.3 82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 24.7 / 32.4 34.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.4 / 6.7 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 10.7 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU Advantage
22-9-0 (71.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +2.2
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BELL
APSU
BELL
APSU
ML
72% 23-9
53% 16-14
94% 29-2
59% 16-11
ATS
72% 23-9
57% 17-13
94% 29-2
59% 16-11
TTL
50% 16-16
57% 17-13
100% 31-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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