Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Terriers @ Eagles BU @ AMER

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

14-16  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

16-14  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
TERRIERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
TERRIERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Boston University)
TerriersBU (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Terriers Cover

84.1%

Eagles Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BU)

BU By 1-7 points

23.0%

BU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AMER By 1-7 points

10.7%

AMER By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
73
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
63
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
65
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
70
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Terriers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Terriers (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 AMER @ BU 73 - 75
Feb 28, 2026 BU @ AMER 68 - 65
Jan 3, 2026 AMER @ BU 64 - 62
Feb 22, 2025 BU @ AMER 44 - 48
Jan 8, 2025 AMER @ BU 54 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.1% more
Boston University: 2.8 vs American University: 1.0
Turnovers (L5) +20.2% more
Boston University: 9.3 vs American University: 7.5
Assists (L5) +16.1% more
Boston University: 14.4 vs American University: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Boston University: 52.5% vs American University: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BU Score 73.0 68
AMER Score 63.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 40.1 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.1 / 14.4 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.0 / 2.8 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 52.5 36.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 77.4 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 33.2 30.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.2 / 5.7 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 7.5 / 9.3 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
AMER
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
BU
AMER
BU
ML
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
ATS
59% 19-13
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
TTL
59% 19-13
65% 22-12
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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