CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
7-23 | Road
61
WAGNER
SEAHAWKSWAG
12-16 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
SEAHAWKS
0%
COUGARS
--
SEAHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
WAGNER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Wagner)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WAG -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAG)
CHST By 1-7 points
4.8%
CHST By 8-14 points
1.1%
WAG By 1-7 points
15.3%
WAG By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago State
66
CHICAGO STATE
Wagner
81
WAGNER
Simulated Score
Chicago State
63
CHICAGO STATE
Wagner
70
WAGNER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seahawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seahawks (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Seahawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o134.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
CHST @ WAG
61 - 80
Jan 2, 2026
WAG @ CHST
79 - 72
Feb 22, 2025
WAG @ CHST
64 - 52
Jan 3, 2025
CHST @ WAG
64 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+190.0% more
Wagner: 2.8
vs
Chicago State: 0.9
Turnovers (L5)
+40.8% more
Wagner: 12.1
vs
Chicago State: 8.6
Rebounding (L5)
+19.8% more
Wagner: 38.0
vs
Chicago State: 31.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.5%
Wagner: 77.7%
vs
Chicago State: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHST Score
66.0
61
WAG Score
81.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 32.5
52.0 / 25.0
Assists
10.3 / 16.3
20.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.8 / 40.9
49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
77.7 / 71.1
81.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 31.7
43.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.5 / 8.4
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 8.6
16.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
WAG
Advantage
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
WAG
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
WAG
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAG
CHST
WAG
CHST
ML
63%
19-11
75%
24-8
57%
17-13
73%
22-8
ATS
60%
18-12
69%
22-10
57%
17-13
73%
22-8
TTL
53%
16-14
44%
14-18
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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