LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-21 | Road
88
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-21 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
ROADRUNNERS
0%
BEACH
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUB -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
LBSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
LBSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
CSUB By 1-7 points
20.1%
CSUB By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
64
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal State Bakersfield
76
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
72
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal State Bakersfield
75
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
LBSU @ CSUB
88 - 87
Jan 10, 2026
CSUB @ LBSU
75 - 81
Feb 27, 2025
CSUB @ LBSU
88 - 87
Jan 4, 2025
LBSU @ CSUB
65 - 80
Feb 22, 2024
CSUB @ LBSU
66 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.0% more
Long Beach State: 4.8
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+22.1% more
Long Beach State: 13.7
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
Long Beach State: 31.4%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 20.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Long Beach State: 80.0%
vs
Cal State Bakersfield: 78.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
64.0
88
CSUB Score
76.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
20.7 / 31.4
30.0 / 56.0
Assists
10.7 / 13.7
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.8
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.7 / 43.2
53.0 / 61.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 80.0
68.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 33.6
27.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.0 / 6.1
13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.1
9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
LBSU
CSUB
LBSU
ML
55%
17-14
55%
17-14
71%
22-9
65%
20-11
ATS
61%
19-12
68%
21-10
71%
22-9
65%
20-11
TTL
58%
18-13
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
