Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Tigers MISS @ AUB

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

11-17  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 8:30 PM ET
Neville Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

15-13  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
REBELS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Auburn)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

38.2%

Tigers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AUB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

MISS By 1-7 points

21.6%

MISS By 8-14 points

10.7%

AUB By 1-7 points

27.2%

AUB By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
79
OLE MISS
82
AUBURN
Simulated Score
67
OLE MISS
79
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 MISS @ AUB 85 - 79
Jan 20, 2026 AUB @ MISS 78 - 66
Mar 14, 2025 MISS @ AUB 57 - 62
Feb 26, 2025 MISS @ AUB 76 - 106
Feb 1, 2025 AUB @ MISS 92 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +44.3% more
Auburn: 4.8 vs Ole Miss: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +26.3% more
Auburn: 10.5 vs Ole Miss: 8.3
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Auburn: 35.1 vs Ole Miss: 31.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.6%
Auburn: 36.5% vs Ole Miss: 26.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 79.0 85
AUB Score 82.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 26.9 33.0 / 40.0
Assists 11.2 / 16.5 8.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 44.6 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 78.0 70.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 31.7 32.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.7 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 8.3 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
AUB Advantage
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
AUB Advantage
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
MISS
AUB
MISS
ML
58% 22-16
48% 16-17
75% 24-8
52% 17-16
ATS
74% 28-10
61% 20-13
75% 24-8
52% 17-16
TTL
53% 20-18
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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