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WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

12-18  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Firestone Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

8-22  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
WAVES
0%
COUGARS --
WAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Pepperdine)
CougarsWSU (-3.5) 0 WavesPEPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

30.9%

Waves Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PEPP -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)

WSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

WSU By 8-14 points

8.0%

PEPP By 1-7 points

27.2%

PEPP By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WASHINGTON STATE
74
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
65
WASHINGTON STATE
78
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Waves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Waves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Waves (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Waves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 WSU @ PEPP 79 - 88
Jan 24, 2026 PEPP @ WSU 79 - 95
Mar 1, 2025 WSU @ PEPP 90 - 83
Feb 8, 2025 PEPP @ WSU 86 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.2% more
Pepperdine: 5.7 vs Washington State: 4.8
Assists (L5) +13.9% more
Pepperdine: 16.6 vs Washington State: 14.6
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Washington State: 77.6% vs Pepperdine: 75.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Washington State: 47.0% vs Pepperdine: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 69.0 79
PEPP Score 74.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.5 / 41.5 26.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.6 / 14.6 18.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 47.0 46.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 77.6 88.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 32.0 43.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.8 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 13.3 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
PEPP
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
WSU
PEPP
WSU
ML
62% 20-12
78% 25-7
69% 22-10
69% 20-9
ATS
56% 18-14
78% 25-7
69% 22-10
69% 20-9
TTL
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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