Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flames @ Gamecocks LIB @ JXST

LIBERTY

FLAMESLIB

23-5  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Pete Mathews Coliseum
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

GAMECOCKSJXST

14-14  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
GAMECOCKS
0%
FLAMES --
GAMECOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Jacksonville State)
FlamesLIB (-3.5) 0 GamecocksJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

34.5%

Gamecocks Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JXST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

LIB By 1-7 points

20.1%

LIB By 8-14 points

9.3%

JXST By 1-7 points

27.4%

JXST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
LIBERTY
78
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
66
LIBERTY
74
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gamecocks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gamecocks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gamecocks (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Gamecocks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 LIB @ JXST 81 - 78
Jan 4, 2026 JXST @ LIB 69 - 78
Mar 15, 2025 JXST @ LIB 67 - 79
Feb 27, 2025 JXST @ LIB 55 - 59
Feb 1, 2025 LIB @ JXST 61 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +38.2% more
Jacksonville State: 33.3 vs Liberty: 24.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.7%
Jacksonville State: 78.2% vs Liberty: 72.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Jacksonville State: 40.7% vs Liberty: 36.7%
Blocks (L5) +39.9% more
Liberty: 3.7 vs Jacksonville State: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 74.0 81
JXST Score 78.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 36.7 44.0 / 44.0
Assists 14.2 / 14.3 13.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.7 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 49.9 51.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 72.6 70.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 24.1 30.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.1 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 11.2 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
JXST
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -1.9
JXST Advantage
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +4.2
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
LIB
JXST
LIB
ML
50% 16-16
50% 17-17
55% 17-14
53% 18-16
ATS
62% 20-12
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
53% 18-16
TTL
62% 20-12
41% 14-20
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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