TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
20-9 | Road
67
UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
21-9 | Home
42
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
SKYHAWKS
100%
TIGERS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Tennessee State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)
TNST By 1-7 points
23.0%
TNST By 8-14 points
27.2%
UTM By 1-7 points
10.7%
UTM By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee State
81
TENNESSEE STATE
UT Martin
71
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
Tennessee State
72
TENNESSEE STATE
UT Martin
78
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
UTM @ TNST
55 - 68
Feb 28, 2026
TNST @ UTM
67 - 42
Dec 18, 2025
UTM @ TNST
71 - 78
Feb 18, 2025
TNST @ UTM
86 - 75
Jan 21, 2025
UTM @ TNST
80 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+13.3% more
Tennessee State: 4.1
vs
UT Martin: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.0%
Tennessee State: 81.3%
vs
UT Martin: 70.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Tennessee State: 44.9%
vs
UT Martin: 39.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
Tennessee State: 32.7%
vs
UT Martin: 28.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TNST Score
81.0
67
UTM Score
71.0
42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 32.7
19.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.9 / 11.0
7.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.1
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 44.9
33.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
70.2 / 81.3
73.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 36.7
28.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.6 / 9.0
5.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.9
19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
UTM
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
UTM
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
TNST
UTM
TNST
ML
69%
22-10
52%
16-15
69%
20-9
63%
17-10
ATS
56%
18-14
68%
21-10
69%
20-9
64%
18-10
TTL
44%
14-18
52%
16-15
100%
29-0
100%
28-0
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