Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Warriors LAL @ GS

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

34-24  |  Road

129
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

31-28  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
LAKERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

LAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
107
LOS ANGELES
108
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u225.5 Loss
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.9% more
Golden State: 10.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.4
Assists (L5) +43.2% more
Golden State: 33.4 vs Los Angeles: 23.4
Turnovers (L5) +33.6% more
Golden State: 16.7 vs Los Angeles: 12.5
Rebounding (L5) +23.3% more
Golden State: 47.5 vs Los Angeles: 38.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 107.0 129
GS Score 108.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 36.5 27.0 / 46.0
Assists 33.4 / 23.4 32.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.2 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 48.9 45.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 78.3 78.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 47.5 / 38.5 40.0 / 47.0
Steals 10.6 / 7.4 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 12.5 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
LAL
GS
LAL
ML
55% 95-79
61% 68-43
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 101-73
61% 67-43-1
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
TTL
77% 134-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 84-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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