Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Leathernecks LIN @ WIU

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

16-14  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:30 PM ET
Western Hall
View Odds Details →

WESTERN ILLINOIS

LEATHERNECKSWIU

5-25  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
LEATHERNECKS
0%
LIONS --
LEATHERNECKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Western Illinois)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 LeathernecksWIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

42.1%

Leathernecks Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WIU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIU)

LIN By 1-7 points

23.0%

LIN By 8-14 points

12.2%

WIU By 1-7 points

26.8%

WIU By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
LINDENWOOD
69
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
LINDENWOOD
72
WESTERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Leathernecks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Leathernecks (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Leathernecks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 LIN @ WIU 91 - 69
Dec 18, 2025 WIU @ LIN 76 - 92
Feb 25, 2025 LIN @ WIU 81 - 86
Dec 21, 2024 WIU @ LIN 65 - 71
Feb 1, 2024 WIU @ LIN 79 - 71
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
Western Illinois: 35.4% vs Lindenwood: 32.2%
Blocks (L5) +52.1% more
Lindenwood: 4.0 vs Western Illinois: 1.9
Steals (L5) +36.6% more
Lindenwood: 7.2 vs Western Illinois: 4.6
Rebounding (L5) +23.8% more
Lindenwood: 35.5 vs Western Illinois: 27.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 67.0 91
WIU Score 69.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 32.2 35.0 / 40.0
Assists 9.3 / 12.2 12.0 / 6.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.0 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 41.3 41.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 56.4 / 70.8 67.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 27.1 / 35.5 29.0 / 41.0
Steals 4.6 / 7.2 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 14.1 12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
WIU
5-26-0 (16.1%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
WIU
11-17-0 (39.3%)
Margin: -11.9 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
WIU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIU
LIN
WIU
LIN
ML
45% 14-17
47% 15-17
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
ATS
52% 16-15
34% 11-21
61% 19-12
61% 19-12
TTL
45% 14-17
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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