SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
19-9 | Road
75
STANFORD
CARDINALSTAN
17-11 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
CARDINAL
100%
MUSTANGS
--
CARDINAL
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
SMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
SMU By 8-14 points
26.8%
STAN By 1-7 points
6.8%
STAN By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
95
SMU
Stanford
82
STANFORD
Simulated Score
SMU
75
SMU
Stanford
72
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Win
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u155.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
SMU @ STAN
75 - 95
Mar 1, 2025
SMU @ STAN
68 - 73
Feb 1, 2025
STAN @ SMU
61 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+40.1% more
SMU: 17.7
vs
Stanford: 10.6
Rebounding (L5)
+17.3% more
SMU: 39.3
vs
Stanford: 32.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
SMU: 50.4%
vs
Stanford: 43.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.3%
SMU: 39.1%
vs
Stanford: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
95.0
75
STAN Score
82.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 39.1
52.0 / 39.0
Assists
10.6 / 17.7
16.0 / 9.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.1
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 50.4
51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 64.0
91.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 39.3
31.0 / 28.0
Steals
7.9 / 5.4
8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 10.0
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
STAN
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
STAN
Advantage
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
SMU
STAN
SMU
ML
48%
16-17
59%
20-14
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
ATS
48%
16-17
62%
21-13
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
TTL
55%
18-15
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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