Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beavers @ Broncos ORST @ SCU

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

16-14  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Leavey Center
View Odds Details →

SANTA CLARA

BRONCOSSCU

23-7  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
BEAVERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
SANTA CLARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Santa Clara)
BeaversORST (-3.5) 0 BroncosSCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beavers Cover

3.6%

Broncos Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SCU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SCU)

ORST By 1-7 points

2.7%

ORST By 8-14 points

0.5%

SCU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SCU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
62
OREGON STATE
80
SANTA CLARA
Simulated Score
68
OREGON STATE
72
SANTA CLARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ORST @ SCU 72 - 93
Dec 28, 2025 SCU @ ORST 102 - 64
Jan 25, 2025 SCU @ ORST 69 - 83
Jan 9, 2025 ORST @ SCU 81 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +122.1% more
Santa Clara: 9.4 vs Oregon State: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Santa Clara: 83.6% vs Oregon State: 73.9%
Assists (L5) +28.9% more
Oregon State: 18.0 vs Santa Clara: 12.8
Blocks (L5) +24.1% more
Oregon State: 3.5 vs Santa Clara: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 62.0 72
SCU Score 80.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 38.5 36.0 / 20.0
Assists 12.8 / 18.0 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.5 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 46.2 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 83.6 / 73.9 83.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 38.5 41.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.4 / 4.3 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 11.5 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
SCU Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
SCU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SCU
ORST
SCU
ORST
ML
44% 15-19
45% 15-18
73% 22-8
59% 19-13
ATS
53% 18-16
48% 16-17
74% 23-8
59% 19-13
TTL
47% 16-18
55% 18-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 5 minutes ago
Mountain West Media Days: Eric Olen Earns High Praise from Rival…
yahoo 19 hours, 7 minutes ago
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day ago
Ryan Smith Vows Major Estate Gift to BYU, Calls College Sports '…
yahoo 1 week, 2 days ago
Big Ten Road Warriors: Historic Saturday Shakes Up Conference Po…
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago