PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
13-15 | Road
79
CREIGHTON
BLUEJAYSCREI
14-15 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
0%
BLUEJAYS
100%
FRIARS
--
BLUEJAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CREIGHTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CREI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CREI)
PROV By 1-7 points
26.2%
PROV By 8-14 points
16.9%
CREI By 1-7 points
24.3%
CREI By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
81
PROVIDENCE
Creighton
80
CREIGHTON
Simulated Score
Providence
70
PROVIDENCE
Creighton
75
CREIGHTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Friars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bluejays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bluejays (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Bluejays (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
PROV @ CREI
79 - 76
Jan 16, 2026
CREI @ PROV
88 - 93
Feb 5, 2025
CREI @ PROV
80 - 69
Jan 14, 2025
PROV @ CREI
64 - 84
Mar 14, 2024
PROV @ CREI
78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.8% more
Providence: 3.3
vs
Creighton: 2.5
Rebounding (L5)
+15.4% more
Providence: 39.1
vs
Creighton: 33.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Providence: 49.2%
vs
Creighton: 42.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
Providence: 42.4%
vs
Creighton: 37.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
81.0
79
CREI Score
80.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.2 / 42.4
33.0 / 42.0
Assists
13.4 / 11.1
17.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 49.2
43.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 74.1
88.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 39.1
37.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.0 / 2.7
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 11.8
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
CREI
Advantage
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
CREI
11-22-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
CREI
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CREI
PROV
CREI
PROV
ML
52%
17-16
59%
19-13
70%
21-9
67%
20-10
ATS
58%
19-14
50%
16-16
70%
21-9
67%
20-10
TTL
52%
17-16
44%
14-18
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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