PITTSBURGH
PANTHERSPITT
10-18 | Road
72
CALIFORNIA
GOLDEN BEARSCAL
20-8 | Home
56
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
PANTHERS
--
GOLDEN BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (California)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)
PITT By 1-7 points
4.0%
PITT By 8-14 points
0.8%
CAL By 1-7 points
13.7%
CAL By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
62
PITTSBURGH
California
78
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
71
PITTSBURGH
California
75
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Bears (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Golden Bears (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
PITT @ CAL
72 - 56
Jan 1, 2025
CAL @ PITT
74 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+47.3% more
California: 2.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.8
Rebounding (L5)
+14.5% more
California: 35.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 31.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.1%
California: 79.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 65.2%
Turnovers (L5)
+16.8% more
Pittsburgh: 12.0
vs
California: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PITT Score
62.0
72
CAL Score
78.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 36.9
23.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.5 / 14.2
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.7 / 1.8
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 44.6
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 65.2
71.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 31.0
29.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.5 / 5.6
8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 12.0
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
CAL
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -1.3
ATS +/-: -0.5
CAL
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
PITT
CAL
PITT
ML
61%
20-13
58%
19-14
77%
24-7
45%
15-18
ATS
64%
21-12
64%
21-12
78%
25-7
45%
15-18
TTL
70%
23-10
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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