OREGON
DUCKSORE
11-17 | Road
62
NORTHWESTERN
WILDCATSNU
12-16 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
DUCKS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Northwestern)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)
ORE By 1-7 points
16.9%
ORE By 8-14 points
6.8%
NU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon
66
OREGON
Northwestern
72
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
Oregon
70
OREGON
Northwestern
72
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
ORE @ NU
62 - 63
Feb 11, 2025
NU @ ORE
75 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.2%
Northwestern: 40.8%
vs
Oregon: 33.5%
Blocks (L5)
+33.3% more
Oregon: 5.2
vs
Northwestern: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
Oregon: 11.1
vs
Northwestern: 9.5
Steals (L5)
+11.3% more
Oregon: 7.7
vs
Northwestern: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORE Score
66.0
62
NU Score
72.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 33.5
25.0 / 37.0
Assists
15.4 / 15.2
17.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.5 / 5.2
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.8 / 46.2
45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 81.2
75.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
28.5 / 31.9
32.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.7
11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 11.1
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
NU
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
NU
Advantage
16-16-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
ORE
NU
ORE
ML
47%
16-18
56%
18-14
68%
23-11
62%
18-11
ATS
50%
17-17
56%
18-14
68%
23-11
62%
18-11
TTL
53%
18-16
59%
19-13
100%
34-0
100%
29-0
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