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MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

19-9  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-15  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
TIGERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Mississippi State)
TigersMIZ (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

5.5%

Bulldogs Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MIZ By 1-7 points

4.0%

MIZ By 8-14 points

0.8%

MSST By 1-7 points

13.7%

MSST By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
68
MISSOURI
84
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
71
MISSOURI
75
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 MIZ @ MSST 88 - 64
Jan 31, 2026 MSST @ MIZ 79 - 84
Mar 13, 2025 MSST @ MIZ 73 - 85
Feb 1, 2025 MIZ @ MSST 88 - 61
Feb 10, 2024 MSST @ MIZ 75 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +20.2% more
Mississippi State: 4.0 vs Missouri: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +15.2% more
Mississippi State: 36.0 vs Missouri: 31.2
Assists (L5) +12.7% more
Mississippi State: 14.9 vs Missouri: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Mississippi State: 37.3% vs Missouri: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 68.0 88
MSST Score 84.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 33.1 26.0 / 40.0
Assists 14.9 / 13.3 9.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.3 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 47.9 49.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 58.7 / 73.3 54.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 31.2 26.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.0 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 10.1 18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
MIZ
MSST
MIZ
ML
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
55% 17-14
69% 22-10
ATS
56% 18-14
70% 23-10
55% 17-14
69% 22-10
TTL
59% 19-13
79% 26-7
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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