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BYU

COUGARSBYU

20-8  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 5:30 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

16-12  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
COUGARS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (BYU)
CougarsBYU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

95.5%

Mountaineers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BYU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

BYU By 1-7 points

12.2%

BYU By 8-14 points

23.0%

WVU By 1-7 points

3.3%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
82
BYU
65
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
72
BYU
75
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 BYU @ WVU 68 - 48
Feb 28, 2026 BYU @ WVU 71 - 79
Mar 1, 2025 WVU @ BYU 56 - 77
Feb 11, 2025 BYU @ WVU 73 - 69
Feb 3, 2024 BYU @ WVU 86 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +17.1%
BYU: 77.8% vs West Virginia: 60.6%
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
BYU: 36.3 vs West Virginia: 31.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
BYU: 31.9% vs West Virginia: 28.7%
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
West Virginia: 11.7 vs BYU: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 82.0 71
WVU Score 65.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 31.9 32.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.9 / 11.6 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 45.3 44.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 60.6 / 77.8 77.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 36.3 39.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.5 / 5.8 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.0 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
BYU
WVU
BYU
ML
63% 22-13
60% 21-14
76% 26-8
72% 23-9
ATS
60% 21-14
54% 19-16
76% 26-8
72% 23-9
TTL
40% 14-21
69% 24-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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