UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
18-11 | Road
60
UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
19-10 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
ANTEATERS
0%
GAUCHOS
--
ANTEATERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UC IRVINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UC Irvine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCI)
UCSB By 1-7 points
15.3%
UCSB By 8-14 points
5.8%
UCI By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCI By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
83
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC Irvine
90
UC IRVINE
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
65
UC SANTA BARBARA
UC Irvine
72
UC IRVINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
UCSB @ UCI
60 - 64
Feb 7, 2026
UCI @ UCSB
79 - 84
Mar 8, 2025
UCI @ UCSB
97 - 88
Feb 13, 2025
UCSB @ UCI
60 - 62
Feb 22, 2024
UCSB @ UCI
69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+221.2% more
UC Irvine: 6.4
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+120.6% more
UC Irvine: 9.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 4.3
Assists (L5)
+49.7% more
UC Irvine: 18.1
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.1
Turnovers (L5)
+19.9% more
UC Irvine: 15.1
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
83.0
60
UCI Score
90.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 33.1
10.0 / 44.0
Assists
18.1 / 12.1
9.0 / 14.0
Blocks
6.4 / 2.0
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 43.2
40.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 74.2
63.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 37.5
35.0 / 32.0
Steals
9.6 / 4.3
9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 12.6
7.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCI
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
UCI
Advantage
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCI
UCSB
UCI
UCSB
ML
57%
20-15
59%
19-13
53%
18-16
72%
23-9
ATS
63%
22-13
62%
20-12
53%
18-16
72%
23-9
TTL
57%
20-15
47%
15-17
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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