CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
13-16 | Road
64
UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
20-9 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
TRITONS
0%
MUSTANGS
--
TRITONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCSD -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
CP By 1-7 points
18.6%
CP By 8-14 points
8.0%
UCSD By 1-7 points
27.2%
UCSD By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal Poly
66
CAL POLY
UC San Diego
71
UC SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Cal Poly
63
CAL POLY
UC San Diego
72
UC SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tritons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tritons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tritons (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Tritons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
CP @ UCSD
69 - 72
Feb 28, 2026
CP @ UCSD
64 - 80
Jan 1, 2026
UCSD @ CP
65 - 67
Feb 20, 2025
UCSD @ CP
81 - 67
Jan 9, 2025
CP @ UCSD
68 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.1% more
UC San Diego: 15.6
vs
Cal Poly: 13.0
Blocks (L5)
+19.8% more
UC San Diego: 3.0
vs
Cal Poly: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+14.9% more
UC San Diego: 7.7
vs
Cal Poly: 6.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.5%
Cal Poly: 86.6%
vs
UC San Diego: 72.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CP Score
66.0
64
UCSD Score
71.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 33.6
33.0 / 31.0
Assists
15.6 / 13.0
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.0 / 2.5
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 46.1
46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 86.6
63.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 38.6
39.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.7 / 6.7
10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 12.1
6.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSD
CP
UCSD
CP
ML
56%
19-15
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
ATS
50%
17-17
64%
21-12
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
TTL
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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