Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dukes @ Billikens DUQ @ SLU

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

16-12  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Chaifetz Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT LOUIS

BILLIKENSSLU

25-3  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
0%
📊
BILLIKENS
100%
DUKES --
BILLIKENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Duquesne)
DukesDUQ (-3.5) 0 BillikensSLU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dukes Cover

99.7%

Billikens Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUQ -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)

DUQ By 1-7 points

2.2%

DUQ By 8-14 points

8.0%

SLU By 1-7 points

0.3%

SLU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
81
DUQUESNE
54
SAINT LOUIS
Simulated Score
68
DUQUESNE
72
SAINT LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dukes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Billikens Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dukes (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Billikens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u160.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u160.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 DUQ @ SLU 76 - 91
Jan 20, 2026 SLU @ DUQ 81 - 77
Mar 8, 2025 DUQ @ SLU 88 - 90
Mar 13, 2024 SLU @ DUQ 73 - 83
Feb 20, 2024 SLU @ DUQ 66 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.4% more
Saint Louis: 14.9 vs Duquesne: 10.9
Steals (L5) +31.1% more
Saint Louis: 7.4 vs Duquesne: 5.6
Assists (L5) +28.1% more
Saint Louis: 14.6 vs Duquesne: 11.4
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
Saint Louis: 38.1 vs Duquesne: 32.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 81.0 76
SLU Score 54.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 29.3 57.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.6 / 11.4 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.1 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 40.8 54.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 69.8 88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 32.2 28.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.4 / 5.6 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 10.9 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
SLU Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
SLU Advantage
19-13-2 (59.4%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
SLU
18-16-0
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SLU
DUQ
SLU
DUQ
ML
70% 23-10
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
58% 18-13
ATS
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
68% 21-10
58% 18-13
TTL
61% 20-13
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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