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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

28-22-8  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-23-9  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Linus Ullmark
GOALTENDER

Linus Ullmark

#35 | Goaltender
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Linus Ullmark None-None 2.00 0.913 --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 0.00 1.000 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 GAA Ldr 0.00
0.913 Save % Ldr 1.000
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SENATORS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

15.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

OTT By 1 goal

6.6%

OTT By 2-3 goals

3.7%

TOR By 1 goal

17.5%

TOR By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
2
OTTAWA
4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +16.6%
Toronto: 39.1% vs Ottawa: 22.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +9.6% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Ottawa: 15.6
Faceoff % (L5) +3.7%
Toronto: 55.2% vs Ottawa: 51.5%
Hits (L5) +24.2% more
Ottawa: 24.5 vs Toronto: 18.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 2.0 5
TOR Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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