Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hokies @ Tar Heels VT @ UNC

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

18-10  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 8:30 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

22-6  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
HOKIES
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
HOKIES --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Carolina)
HokiesVT (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hokies Cover

34.5%

Tar Heels Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

VT By 1-7 points

20.1%

VT By 8-14 points

9.3%

UNC By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
VIRGINIA TECH
71
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
70
VIRGINIA TECH
75
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 VT @ UNC 82 - 89
Mar 4, 2025 UNC @ VT 91 - 59
Feb 17, 2024 VT @ UNC 81 - 96
Dec 4, 2022 UNC @ VT 72 - 80
Mar 11, 2022 VT @ UNC 72 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +193.2% more
North Carolina: 3.0 vs Virginia Tech: 1.0
Assists (L5) +21.4% more
Virginia Tech: 16.1 vs North Carolina: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Virginia Tech: 70.5% vs North Carolina: 61.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Virginia Tech: 40.5% vs North Carolina: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 67.0 82
UNC Score 71.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 40.5 40.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.6 / 16.1 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 48.0 56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 61.5 / 70.5 77.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 32.4 34.0 / 22.0
Steals 4.3 / 4.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 9.2 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
VT
UNC
VT
ML
76% 25-8
53% 17-15
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
ATS
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
TTL
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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