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NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

16-15  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 5:00 PM ET
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NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

23-7  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING HAWKS
100%
📊
BISON
0%
FIGHTING HAWKS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Dakota State)
Fighting HawksUND (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Hawks Cover

27.4%

Bison Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

UND By 1-7 points

16.9%

UND By 8-14 points

6.8%

NDSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

NDSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTH DAKOTA
75
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
74
NORTH DAKOTA
78
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bison (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 UND @ NDSU 62 - 70
Feb 28, 2026 UND @ NDSU 63 - 96
Feb 14, 2026 NDSU @ UND 83 - 66
Feb 22, 2025 NDSU @ UND 77 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 UND @ NDSU 82 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.7% more
North Dakota State: 17.3 vs North Dakota: 12.9
Steals (L5) +22.6% more
North Dakota State: 6.7 vs North Dakota: 5.5
Rebounding (L5) +17.5% more
North Dakota State: 37.3 vs North Dakota: 31.7
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
North Dakota: 2.9 vs North Dakota State: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 69.0 63
NDSU Score 75.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 36.8 55.0 / 21.0
Assists 17.3 / 12.9 21.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 45.7 57.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 72.3 80.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 31.7 36.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.5 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.5 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
NDSU
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
UND
NDSU
UND
ML
49% 17-18
44% 15-19
59% 20-14
50% 17-17
ATS
54% 19-16
50% 17-17
59% 20-14
50% 17-17
TTL
43% 15-20
65% 22-12
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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