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VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

28-16-14  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

30-23-7  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Nic Dowd
GOALTENDER

Nic Dowd

#26 | Center
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Nic Dowd None-None -- -- --
Logan Thompson None-None 2.01 0.923 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.01
-- Save % 0.923
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Golden KnightsVGK (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

Capitals Cover

84.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

WSH By 1 goal

17.5%

WSH By 2-3 goals

37.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VEGAS
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
VEGAS
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ VGK 5 - 4
Feb 27, 2026 VGK @ WSH 2 - 3
Nov 17, 2024 WSH @ VGK 5 - 2
Oct 15, 2024 VGK @ WSH 2 - 4
Dec 2, 2023 WSH @ VGK 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +30.4% more
Washington: 24.9 vs Vegas: 19.1
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.5% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Vegas: 14.5
Takeaways (L5) +15.1% more
Vegas: 4.9 vs Washington: 4.2
Power Play % (L5) +8.7%
Vegas: 22.6% vs Washington: 13.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VGK Score 1.0 2
WSH Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
VGK
WSH
VGK
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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