MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
26-2 | Road
84
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
22-6 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
WOLVERINES
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
MICH By 1-7 points
12.2%
MICH By 8-14 points
4.0%
ILL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ILL By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
78
MICHIGAN
Illinois
87
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Michigan
72
MICHIGAN
Illinois
78
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
MICH @ ILL
84 - 70
Mar 2, 2025
ILL @ MICH
93 - 73
Feb 13, 2024
MICH @ ILL
68 - 97
Jan 18, 2024
ILL @ MICH
88 - 73
Mar 2, 2023
MICH @ ILL
87 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+12.4% more
Illinois: 40.9
vs
Michigan: 36.4
Turnovers (L5)
+29.8% more
Michigan: 11.4
vs
Illinois: 8.0
Assists (L5)
+10.4% more
Michigan: 19.0
vs
Illinois: 17.1
Steals (L5)
+10.3% more
Michigan: 4.4
vs
Illinois: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
78.0
84
ILL Score
87.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 38.5
31.0 / 36.0
Assists
17.1 / 19.0
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 48.9
41.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
81.5 / 82.9
75.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 36.4
30.0 / 34.0
Steals
3.9 / 4.4
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.0 / 11.4
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
ILL
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
MICH
ILL
MICH
ML
65%
24-13
78%
31-9
57%
20-15
63%
24-14
ATS
70%
26-11
78%
31-9
57%
20-15
63%
24-14
TTL
57%
21-16
57%
23-17
100%
35-0
100%
38-0
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