Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Flash @ Skyhawks SFPA @ STO

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

7-22  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Merkert Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

STONEHILL

SKYHAWKSSTO

10-19  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
0%
📊
SKYHAWKS
100%
RED FLASH --
SKYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAINT FRANCIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Saint Francis)
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 SkyhawksSTO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

91.9%

Skyhawks Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SFPA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFPA)

SFPA By 1-7 points

16.9%

SFPA By 8-14 points

26.2%

STO By 1-7 points

5.8%

STO By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SAINT FRANCIS
64
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
71
SAINT FRANCIS
74
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Flash Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Skyhawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Flash (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Skyhawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 SFPA @ STO 77 - 103
Jan 19, 2026 STO @ SFPA 61 - 63
Feb 13, 2025 SFPA @ STO 74 - 79
Jan 5, 2025 STO @ SFPA 64 - 60
Feb 24, 2024 SFPA @ STO 63 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +25.8% more
Saint Francis: 13.6 vs Stonehill: 10.1
Steals (L5) +22.8% more
Saint Francis: 7.1 vs Stonehill: 5.5
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
Saint Francis: 12.5 vs Stonehill: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Saint Francis: 48.0% vs Stonehill: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 78.0 77
STO Score 64.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.7 / 34.0 47.0 / 38.0
Assists 10.3 / 12.5 21.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.0 / 1.1 10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 48.0 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 75.5 81.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 32.4 40.0 / 32.0
Steals 5.5 / 7.1 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 13.6 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
STO Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
STO Advantage
14-15-2 (48.3%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
SFPA
STO
SFPA
ML
45% 15-18
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
67% 20-10
ATS
39% 13-20
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
67% 20-10
TTL
55% 18-15
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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