UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
9-20 | Road
59
UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
17-11 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
GAUCHOS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
--
GAUCHOS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
UC SANTA BARBARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSB +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSB)
UCR By 1-7 points
25.3%
UCR By 8-14 points
26.2%
UCSB By 1-7 points
13.7%
UCSB By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
83
UC RIVERSIDE
UC Santa Barbara
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
UC Santa Barbara
75
UC SANTA BARBARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gauchos (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
UCR @ UCSB
59 - 70
Feb 12, 2026
UCSB @ UCR
76 - 68
Feb 15, 2025
UCSB @ UCR
69 - 81
Jan 16, 2025
UCR @ UCSB
63 - 66
Mar 9, 2024
UCR @ UCSB
81 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.0% more
UC Riverside: 4.8
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+34.2% more
UC Riverside: 6.8
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+10.4% more
UC Riverside: 13.9
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
83.0
59
UCSB Score
75.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 36.7
28.0 / 13.0
Assists
13.2 / 13.3
10.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.0 / 4.8
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 42.3
44.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 78.0
68.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
36.8 / 39.1
39.0 / 29.0
Steals
4.5 / 6.8
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.9
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
Advantage
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCSB
UCR
UCSB
UCR
ML
59%
19-13
66%
21-11
72%
23-9
75%
24-8
ATS
62%
20-12
59%
19-13
72%
23-9
75%
24-8
TTL
47%
15-17
66%
21-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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