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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

19-9  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 8:30 PM ET
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SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

18-11  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
REDHAWKS
100%
TIGERS --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tennessee State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 RedhawksSEMO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

69.1%

Redhawks Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

TNST By 1-7 points

27.2%

TNST By 8-14 points

23.0%

SEMO By 1-7 points

18.6%

SEMO By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
TENNESSEE STATE
77
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
67
TENNESSEE STATE
75
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redhawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Redhawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 TNST @ SEMO 79 - 71
Dec 20, 2025 SEMO @ TNST 91 - 82
Feb 1, 2025 TNST @ SEMO 87 - 89
Jan 2, 2025 SEMO @ TNST 67 - 65
Feb 10, 2024 TNST @ SEMO 77 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Tennessee State: 12.0 vs Southeast Missouri State: 9.4
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
Tennessee State: 9.0 vs Southeast Missouri State: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
Tennessee State: 78.9% vs Southeast Missouri State: 68.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.9%
Tennessee State: 35.5% vs Southeast Missouri State: 25.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 82.0 79
SEMO Score 77.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.6 / 35.5 39.0 / 27.0
Assists 9.4 / 12.0 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.1 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 47.9 38.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 78.9 71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 37.1 27.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.1 / 9.0 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 10.9 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
SEMO
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
SEMO
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
TNST
SEMO
TNST
ML
64% 21-12
52% 16-15
50% 15-15
63% 17-10
ATS
67% 22-11
68% 21-10
50% 15-15
64% 18-10
TTL
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
100% 30-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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