Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Bulldogs MOST @ LT

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-14  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

15-12  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BEARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

15.9%

Bulldogs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

MOST By 1-7 points

10.7%

MOST By 8-14 points

3.3%

LT By 1-7 points

23.0%

LT By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
82
MISSOURI STATE
92
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
75
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MOST @ LT 66 - 69
Feb 26, 2026 MOST @ LT 70 - 72
Feb 12, 2026 LT @ MOST 79 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +90.5% more
Louisiana Tech: 6.6 vs Missouri State: 3.5
Steals (L5) +37.6% more
Louisiana Tech: 9.0 vs Missouri State: 6.5
Turnovers (L5) +36.7% more
Louisiana Tech: 16.1 vs Missouri State: 11.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Missouri State: 36.7% vs Louisiana Tech: 27.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 82.0 70
LT Score 92.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.2 / 36.7 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.6 / 14.9 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 6.6 / 3.5 11.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 41.7 48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 67.8 / 66.8 63.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 35.8 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.0 / 6.5 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 11.8 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
MOST
LT
MOST
ML
58% 19-14
65% 22-12
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
ATS
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
TTL
61% 20-13
44% 15-19
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 1 hour, 25 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 20 hours, 23 minutes ago
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day, 1 hour ago
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 7 hours ago