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WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

18-10  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 9:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

12-15  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
SHOCKERS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
SHOCKERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
WICHITA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Wichita State)
ShockersWICH (-3.5) 0 TigersMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Shockers Cover

72.6%

Tigers Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WICH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WICH)

WICH By 1-7 points

26.8%

WICH By 8-14 points

24.3%

MEM By 1-7 points

16.9%

MEM By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WICHITA STATE
63
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
68
WICHITA STATE
72
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Shockers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Shockers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 WICH @ MEM 88 - 82
Jan 24, 2026 MEM @ WICH 59 - 74
Mar 14, 2025 WICH @ MEM 80 - 83
Feb 16, 2025 MEM @ WICH 79 - 84
Jan 23, 2025 WICH @ MEM 53 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
Wichita State: 40.8 vs Memphis: 35.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Wichita State: 32.5% vs Memphis: 28.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Wichita State: 44.0% vs Memphis: 41.4%
Blocks (L5) +78.2% more
Memphis: 5.1 vs Wichita State: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WICH Score 69.0 88
MEM Score 63.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.4 / 32.5 36.0 / 20.0
Assists 11.1 / 9.8 7.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.1 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 44.0 52.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 65.8 76.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 40.8 27.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.0 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 11.3 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WICH Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
WICH
MEM
WICH
ML
62% 20-12
61% 22-14
68% 21-10
68% 23-11
ATS
62% 20-12
64% 23-13
68% 21-10
68% 23-11
TTL
66% 21-11
69% 25-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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