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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

27-22-9  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Amerant Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

PANTHERSFLA

29-25-3  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Sergei Bobrovsky
GOALTENDER

Sergei Bobrovsky

#72 | Goaltender
@
Niko Mikkola
GOALTENDER

Niko Mikkola

#77 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Sergei Bobrovsky None-None 1.00 0.967 --
Niko Mikkola None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 GAA --
0.967 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 PanthersFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Panthers Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

FLA By 1 goal

19.7%

FLA By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
TORONTO
3
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 FLA @ TOR 6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TOR @ FLA 1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026 FLA @ TOR 1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025 TOR @ FLA 4 - 1
May 18, 2025 FLA @ TOR 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.1% more
Florida: 22.1 vs Toronto: 17.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +9.0% more
Florida: 30.9 vs Toronto: 28.4
Blocked Shots (L5) +38.7% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Florida: 10.5
Takeaways (L5) +26.9% more
Toronto: 5.7 vs Florida: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 2.0 1
FLA Score 3.0 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
57%MONEY43%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
TOR
FLA
TOR
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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