GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
30-28 | Road
133
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
21-35 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
WARRIORS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
GS By 1-7 points
10.7%
GS By 8-14 points
3.3%
MEM By 1-7 points
23.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
112
GOLDEN STATE
Memphis
122
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Golden State
108
GOLDEN STATE
Memphis
115
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+4)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o225.5
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
GS @ MEM
133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026
MEM @ GS
113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025
MEM @ GS
118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025
MEM @ GS
116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025
GS @ MEM
134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.8% more
Memphis: 13.4
vs
Golden State: 9.9
Blocks (L5)
+25.2% more
Memphis: 4.7
vs
Golden State: 3.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Memphis: 35.7%
vs
Golden State: 32.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Memphis: 48.0%
vs
Golden State: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
112.0
133
MEM Score
122.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.7 / 32.2
41.0 / 41.0
Assists
30.0 / 31.7
30.0 / 37.0
Blocks
4.7 / 3.8
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 45.5
49.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 75.5
72.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 47.2
34.0 / 48.0
Steals
13.4 / 9.9
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 17.1
16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
GS
MEM
GS
ML
57%
59-44
55%
95-79
50%
41-41
58%
49-35
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
101-73
50%
41-41
58%
49-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
77%
134-40
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…